Text of Trade Policy 2003-04 speech

I will begin with a global perspective for this year's policy. Last year has been a frustrating year for global economic recovery. After the significant downturn in late 2001, precipitated by the events of 9/11 and subsequent developments, the world economy was showing signs of recovery during the first half of 2002. The optimism for global economic recovery largely dissipated during the second half of the year, owing to a series of adverse developments, unfolded on the international economic scene. These developments included several major corporate scandals and bankruptcies in the United States, resulting in bursting of the equity market bubble, rising uncertainties in the run-up to war in Iraq causing oil prices to rise sharply, and a recent outbreak of SARS virus, badly affecting business environment in Asia. As a result, the world economic outlook remained subdued, and global trade remained sluggish during fiscal year 2002-03.Economic growth remained somewhat weaker in the major growth poles of the world economy. Weaker outlook in the advanced countries and higher oil prices have adversely affected the pace of economic recovery in the developing countries.The global situation is now showing signs of improvement. Uncertainties surrounding the conflict in Iraq are broadly resolved. There are expectations that global economic recovery would gradually reassert itself, during the second half of the 2003. Major growth poles of world economy are likely to perform better than last year, and the growth outlook for developing countries appears encouraging. Pakistan is likely to benefit from a modest recovery in the global economy, during the current fiscal year.